Washington and Jakarta (fwd)

["M.G.G. Pillai" <pillai@mgg.pc.my>]

---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Mon, 6 Mar 2000 02:08:30 +0800
From: "Charles F. Moreira" <charlesm@maxis.net.my>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:@relay3.jaring.my;>
Subject: Washington and Jakarta

Washington and JakartaFolks,

This is a statement on Washington's aims of using East Timor as a reason for
its imperialist military expansion into South East Asia through its
lieutenant -- Australia.

http://homepage.eircom.net/~beprepared/Easttimor.html

Regards

Charles


WASHINGTON AND JAKARTA

It is clear that the imperialist forces that have descended on East Timor to
ostensibly protect the civilian population against the anti-independence
"militia" are a mere pretext for direct imperialist intervention to protect
and advance the class interests of the imperialist bourgeoisie.

Now that the cold war period is effectively over imperialism no longer
relies in the same way on the kind of regime that has ruled over Indonesia.
Consequently it can suffer a facade of  East Timorese independence involving
formal democratic structures.

Imperialism has directly intervened in East Timor in order to protect and
develop its oppressive hold over the world. East Timor will be effectively
another "invisible" colony of imperialism. Australian capitalism is required
to do Washington's work for a variety of reasons. One of them is Beijing. If
Washington was to walk into East Timor as the main player China would
become increasingly worried concerning the former's strategic intentions.
China is highly sensitive to any direct intervention by Washington in that
part of the world. Consequently direct military intervention by the
Americans would most probably  lead to a deterioration in relations between
Beijing and Washington. At a time when relations between them have already
deteriorated after its intervention in Kosova and its bombing of the Chinese
embassy Washington would merely reduce the options available. Some other
powers in that part of the world would experience greater uneasiness with a
relatively large scale American military intervention too.

Any direct military intervention by the US might encourage closer
co-operation between Russia and China. Already these two powers have been
drawing closer together in the face of the growing power of American
imperialism. Direct military intervention in East Timor would only encourage
Russia/ Chinese unity. Furthermore it might also lead to greater unity
between these two powers and other lesser powers under the threat from an
increasingly powerful interventionist Washington. Consequently Washington
has to avoid making moves that would foster unity around a Russian/Chinese
axis. In view of this the ideal player for the role of chief bourgeois
crusader is Australia. It is an "Asian" power and has been conducting itself
over the last while --before the current difficulty- within that context
rather than as a Western power within Asia.

Jakarta, on the other hand, if forced  could play the Asian card and thereby
increase bourgeois instability in that region. This could only but upset
Washington strategic plans. This is what Washington fears even though it is
a highly unlikely scenario. Jakarta can play this card by making things
difficult for Cosgrove in East Timor through its deployment and reactivation
of --its Trojan horse-- the "militia" in East Timor. By re-activating this
force it can make things so difficult for Australia as to undermine its
ability to impose and maintain imperialist stability in East Timor. As the
situation there deteriorates --getting increasingly messy-- Canberra would
be forced to pour more and more troops into the island. This force the
Australian bourgeoisie to introduce conscription. This development together
with the body bags returning home could adversely impact on the Australian
regime. The conditions for the emergence of a mass anti-war protests might
be created. There is always the remote possibility then that East Timor
could lead to growing bourgeois instability in Australia itself and the
consequent radicalisation of Australian politics. Apart from all this
Australia would be effectively finished as a regional power --for some
time-- capable of conducting the current kind of intervention in that
region. Obviously neither Canberra nor Washington would be pleased with such
a state of affairs. This would significantly upset Washington's strategic
plans since no longer could it hope to use Australia to serve as its
lieutenant in that region. Canberra's loss of credibility would further
destabilise the situation in that part of the world and correspondingly
strengthen China's regional status.

Furthermore Washington, under such circumstances, would be forced to
intervene militarily in East Timor thereby exposing its naked imperialist
aggressive intentions to other powers in that region thereby prompting them
to seek protection under a Russia/China umbrella. The one thing Washington
does not want is a Russian/Chinese bloc that includes other Asian powers. To
avoid this Washington might be prepared to hand back East Timor to
Indonesia.

At present the main danger facing many powers in the world is the growing
power of  US imperialism in the absence of an effective counterweight as the
Soviet Union had been until its demise. With the Soviet "menace" gone it is
becoming increasingly clear that the American "menace" is the new kid in
town. It is becoming increasingly clear US imperialism, under the guise of
"humanitarianism", is the new and growing danger to the freedom and
sovereignty of many countries. What is now being gropingly sought is an
effective counterweight to American expansionism --its new frontierism. The
one thing that can unite China, Russia and Europe is their fear of an
increasingly powerful US. The one thing they share in common is their
growing fear of Washington. Among Washington's aims is the conduct of a
strategic policy in such a way as to hinder and even prevent such a growing
unity which might prove be extremely threatening to the US. In the aftermath
of the cold war we are living in a period where a radical readjustment in
international relations is proceeding. This readjustment introduces great
uncertainty and fluidity to the world situation. This is why the waters are
so muddy and will even get muddier before they settle down--if they do.

If Washington gets enmeshed in East Timor it can quite easily be perceived
as a nakedly imperialist aggressor that must be challenged. The emergence of
such a perception can quite easily lead to huge difficulties for Washington.
It must be remembered too that the Indonesian control of West Timor serves
as a base from which various kinds of attacks can be launched against any
forces based in East Timor. This gives Indonesia a natural strategic
advantage over both Australia and the United States. Even if a formal East
Timorese independence is established a permanent Australian or American
force may have to be permanently stationed in East Timor. This means that
Indonesia depending on the situation can use West Timor as a base from which
to launch attacks or sorties on either the security forces based in East
Timor as a means of destabilising the situation or as a means of exerting
leverage on Washington. Depending on how the  situation evolves this kind of
activity can be used to make Washington look like an imperialist aggressor
and even weaken its grip on Asia. Washington does not want to have to
abandon its "ethical" foreign policy since it has been in the recent past
quite effective at concealing its real aggressive and oppressive intentions.
It has also been a useful strategic device for rally support for its
actions.



A big problem facing Indonesia is the instability it has been experiencing
against the backdrop of recent economic meltdown. In exerting any leverage
this may weaken its resolve. There is always the danger that Washington can
threaten Jakarta with further domestic destabilisation if attempts to use
its leverage to discredit Canberra. However there are limits to such threats
since Washington may fear the break up of Indonesia to its own class
interests. And then under conditions where things are so bad Jakarta may
believe it has little to loose.