Roth on US Asia Policy in Clinton's final year (fwd)

["M.G.G. Pillai" <pillai@mgg.pc.my>]

---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: 04 Mar 2000 13:07:20
From: tapol@gn.apc.org
Reply-To: "Conference act.indonesia" <indonesia-act@igc.org>
To: Recipients of indonesia-act <indonesia-act@igc.org>
Subject: Roth on US Asia Policy in Clinton's final year

From: TAPOL <tapol@gn.apc.org>
Subject: Roth on US Asia Policy in Clinton's final year

Received from Joyo Indonesian News

[Roth's introductory remarks followed by Indonesia-related excerpts only]

The United States' Asia Policy
in the Last Year of the Clinton Administration 

A Presentation to the Asia Society of Hong Kong

By Stanley O. Roth
Assistant Secretary of State 
For East Asian and Pacific Affairs

March 2, 2000

Thank you. It is a pleasure to be back in one of the most vibrant
cities in Asia.

I thought I would share with you a Washington perspective on
developments in the region as we enter the year 2000. Just over a week
ago, I discussed the coming year in the Asia Pacific Region at a
hearing with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee East Asia and
Pacific Subcommittee. In opening the hearing, the chairman, Senator
Craig Thomas of Wyoming, observed that the new century was beginning
with the year of the dragon. He wondered if the prospects for the year
were as positive as many had hoped even a year or two ago.

I would suggest, on balance, that Asia's prospects are substantially
rosier than we would have hoped a year ago. At this time last year, an
overview of the region would have been cast in tones of measured
pessimism. The continuing effects of the financial crisis seemed to
offer the inevitable prospect of a long and difficult recovery. Talk
of a coming Pacific century seemed to be an inconvenient relic of
another time. Instead, regional leaders were pre-occupied with the
consequences of economic crisis and the potential for political
instability. Some spoke darkly of a lost generation. But that
pessimism has largely disappeared in the wake of the surprising
economic recovery in most of the region. So I would propose to begin
with some comment about the regional economy, acknowledging that many
of you have a far better measure of these developments than I do.
After that I will briefly review the Washington perspective on some
salient developments in countries of particular importance to the U.S.

Economic Recovery

This past year has seen a remarkable recovery from the Asian financial
crisis. It was, by any measure, the major regional development of the
past year. Two of the countries worst hit by the crisis - Thailand and
the Republic of Korea - posted robust GDP growth figures of five and
ten percent respectively. Other countries, including China and the
Philippines, also ended the year with higher GDP growth than had been
predicted at the beginning of 1999. Inflation was reduced
substantially across the region. With returning growth came renewed
optimism.

To be sure, we are not back to pre-crisis economic levels. Clearly
there are challenges remaining. The financial crisis was a harsh
reminder that economies must be transparent and financial institutions
must make lending decisions based on economics, not politics. Market
discipline and the rule of law must be strengthened to curb the
corruption and cronyism that were responsible, at least in part, for
the economic suffering of the recent past. I have heard some Asian
leaders and economists ruefully suggest that the recovery may have
come too soon, that in some countries the recovery may dissipate the
motivation to make structural reforms that are still required to
ensure the long-term health of the economy. It seems to me that we
must take the opportunity of recovery to accomplish reform while
economies are sufficiently strong to absorb the medicine without an
adverse reaction.

In addition, workers in a number of countries have yet to regain the
standard of living they had enjoyed during the previous boom times.
Even in Korea, the fastest recovering economy, unemployment is still
higher than it was before the crisis. Where workers have secured new
jobs, many are earning less than they did before, while prices have
risen. The social safety nets, which were so clearly and painfully
absent during the financial crisis, have yet to be put in place in a
number of countries. Once again, the challenge is to weave those nets
before they are needed for another emergency.

Finally, it should be recognized that there are two wild cards, which
could slow or even derail the regional recovery. If U.S. economic
growth should falter or Japan's economy take a severe downturn, this
could significantly reduce markets and investment sources important to
regional recovery.

Indonesia

Indonesia has seen dramatic and positive changes; changes of
considerable importance to regional stability and prosperity and to
U.S. interests in the Asia Pacific region. The past twelve months have
witnessed a successful transition from an authoritarian regime toward
a pluralistic, representative democracy. Successful parliamentary
elections in June and the selection of President Abdurrahman Wahid in
October enabled Indonesia's first democratic government to take office
since the 1950s.

The new government came into office with the broad-based legitimacy
necessary to begin to confront Indonesia's daunting economic and
political difficulties. That said, it should also be underscored that
no one realistically expected that President Wahid and his new
government would be able to resolve all of Indonesia's problems in the
first 100 days, or even 1000 days. The Government has, however, made a
promising start in a number of areas:

-- President Wahid has successfully asserted civilian control of the
military. The suspension of General Wiranto from the cabinet to await
possible legal action for his role in East Timor is only the most
dramatic sign of this important transformation.

-- Indonesia signed a memorandum of agreement for a new program with
the IMF on January 20, 2000, leading to the release of a new tranche
of IMF funding, and coinciding with renewed disbursements from the
World Bank.

-- President Wahid freed virtually all the remaining political
prisoners from the Soeharto era by December 1999, a total of 196
prisoners.

-- In Aceh, the government has initiated a complex negotiating process
with some of the many different factions demanding a new political
arrangement for that troubled province. While the outcome of the
process is uncertain, the government deserves considerable credit for
seeking to resolve these difficulties through negotiation rather than
repression.

In all of these areas, significant challenges remain ahead, but the
crucial first steps have been taken, and I am convinced that
Indonesia's prospects are positive.

Both the U.S. and Indonesia's neighbors have a profound interest in
seeing a successful democratic transition in Indonesia. Last year, the
Secretary of State identified Indonesia as one of the world's four
priority emerging democracies. President Clinton welcomed President
Wahid to the Oval Office shortly after he assumed the Presidency. UN
Ambassador Holbrooke and Secretary of Treasury Summers have both
visited Indonesia since President Wahid took office.

In response to the urgency and importance of the need, U.S. will offer
increased bilateral assistance to Indonesia to help strengthen
Indonesia's nascent democratic institutions. Indonesians must build an
effective and just judicial system, promote civil society, spur
continued economic reform, and professionalize national and local
parliaments. The U.S. will be joining with other countries and
multilateral institutions to assist Indonesia's reform efforts.

In the midst of dramatic changes in Indonesia over the past year, many
Americans have seen East Timor as one of the defining changes. With
the establishment of the UN Transitional Authority in East Timor, we
are beginning to see a new nation of East Timor, independent of
Indonesia.

Before this audience, I am not going to detail the familiar events of
the past year. Since last September, the international community has
united in taking steps to end the violence and respond to the
humanitarian crisis. Now, six months later, we are assisting East
Timor develop democratic institutions and prepare for independence. We
are pressing the Government of Indonesia to enable refugees remaining
in West Timor to return home or resettle elsewhere in Indonesia free
from militia intimidation. Finally, we are supporting the Indonesian
Government's efforts to ensure accountability for atrocities in East
Timor. We believe that the ability of the Indonesian Government to
effect accountability will be crucial to establishing civilian control
of the military. That, in turn, will be essential to the stability of
the country's new democratic order and the resurgence of investor
confidence.

Australia

Australian-American cooperation is so consistently strong that it is
hard for it to generate in Washington the kind of public attention it
deserves. This past year, Australia demonstrated once again why it is
such a valuable partner and leader in the region. When violence
erupted in East Timor in September, Australia stepped forward to
organize and provide the bulk of the personnel for the multinational
force that was sent to East Timor under the authorization of the UN
Security Council.

By its actions, Australia provided a role model about how nations can
take the lead in responding to crises in their own region. This kind
of leadership has won Australia some well-deserved praise both from
the "White House" and the United States Congress.

Concluding Remarks

It is always dangerous for a foreign policy practitioner to make
predictions. The onset of the unforeseen Asian financial crisis in
1997 or the fall of President Suharto in 1998 are two striking
reminders of just how unpredictable the foreign policy business is.
Yet even if I accept my own sage warning and shy away from
predictions, I would like to lay out my vision for what is possible -
and even likely - this year. China will accede to the WTO and the
Congress will vote in favor of permanent NTR. The Taiwan elections
will set the stage for a revival of cross-straits dialogue. The Wahid
government will continue down the path of democratic transition, with
civilian supremacy firmly enshrined. Japan will hold a successful G-8
summit, which will reflect the fact that it is being held in Asia.
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula will continue to diminish as North
Korea deepens its engagement with the United States, Japan, and many
other countries. Asian regional institutions - APEC and ARF - will
feel a new sense of vitality as the Asian economic recovery continues
and confidence returns to the region and its leaders. Finally, there
is at least one prediction that I know is absolutely safe: Hong Kong
will remain one of the great cities of the world.
 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
TAPOL, the Indonesia Human Rights Campaign
111 Northwood Road, Thornton Heath,
Surrey CR7 8HW, UK
Phone: 0181 771-2904   Fax: 0181 653-0322
email: tapol@gn.apc.org
Internet: www.gn.apc.org/tapol
Campaigning to expose human rights violations in
Indonesia, East Timor, West Papua and Aceh

26 years - and still going strong 
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